Once is an accident, twice is a trend...

by Old Man Lemon

I'm a firm believer in the old adage "Don't talk about it, be about it." With that in mind, instead of a series of apologies and promises following my Week 2 absense, dear readers, I'll simple ask that you grant me a stay of judgement and trust there will not be a repeat of that careless nature the rest of the season.

Thanks.

Now that we're friends again let's start today with a quick recap of Week 1 and immediately dive into this weekend's matchups.

The silver lining in Week 1, of course, was the New England Patriots sqeaked by with a 25-24 victory. In reality, our hometown Pats had no business even winning that game. But we don't live in reality. We live in the land of "spreads" & "covers." And, having not covered our teased spread of -2, we dug ourselves a bit of a hole and came up two extra points short of hitting pay dirt. So, instead of winning $1100 for our Greek Island vacation, we're down $100. Captain Math tells us that's a $1200 swing, dear readers.

But that's why they call it betting.

3 Game Tease of the Week:

(REMINDER: In a 3-game tease the bettor is allowed to manipulate the spread or over/under 9 points in each game.)

1) San Francisco 49ers (+7) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The San Francisco 49ers have not started a season 3-0 since 1998. They are visiting a 2-0 Minnesota Vikings team who had to overcome halftime deficits against weak opponents like the Browns and the Lions. Past history doesn't really come into play for this game. The 49ers are a different team under new head coach Mike Singletary while the Vikings are just enjoying the buzz created by the "un-un-retirement" of attention whore Brett Favre. This game features 2 of the top 3 running backs in yards-per-game this season with Peterson (1st) and Gore (3rd). It also features the league's 4th (Vikings) and 7th (49ers) ranked defenses. I'm thinking San Francisco (+16) has enough of a defense and a running game to control the clock, keep it close and, maybe, steal a win on the road.

2) New Orleans Saints (-6) vs. Buffalo Bills

The next stop for the Drew Brees Offensive Juggernaut is Buffalo. The Bills have the league's 28th ranked defense, giving up nearly 400 yards per game, while the Saints' league leading offensive is racking up 470 yards per game. In addition, there are rumors that Brees and his coach are gunning for Tom Brady's regular season touchdown record of 50 set during the Patriots undefeated season in 2007. I'm thinking Brees adds 5 more TDs to his total in Buffalo this weekend as the Saints (+3) roll.

3) Carolina Pathers vs. Dallas Cowboys (46 0/U)

After laying an egg on Sunday night last weekend, the 'Boys and Regular Season Romo(TM) welcome the 0-2 Carolina Panthers to JerryWorld. (To combat insecurity, some men buy expensive cars. Others build billion stadiums.) Despite Romo's efforts (13-29, 127 yards. 1 TD-3 INT. 29.6 rating) America's Team still had a chance to defeat the Giants, who are considered an elite team in the NFL. I like R.S.R and the Cowboys (over 37) to bounce back and put up some points proving the old adage that "they do things bigger in Texas."

I hope all three games do things "bigger" than our Week 1 tease did for a total play of $480.

CEMENT Pick of the Week:

You may be thinking it's hyperbole to give a game the "must win" label this early in the season. But trust me, dear readers, it's not. As I always say, "Numbers don't lie. People do." Since the NFL expanded its playoff field to 12 teams in 1990 only 3 have gone on to actually make the tournament after starting the season 0-3: the '92 Chargers, the '95 Lions and the '98 Bills.

The Tennessee Titans are too strong on both sides of the ball to become the forth team in 11 years to challenge NFL's historically unkind treatment of 0-3 teams. Plus, as Coach Boone taught me, in "Greek mythology the Titans were greater even than the gods and they ruled their universe with absolute power." So we're betting $1200 that, this weekend, the football field in New York is Tennessee's universe. And they're going to rule it like Titans (+3) and be CEMENT.

Remember dear readers: when life gives you lemons, drink the lemonade.

And when bookies give you lines, try to make it rain.

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[ Season Record: 0-1-0 ]
[ Cement PotW: 1-0-0 ]
[ Bank: $ - 100.00 ]