Tuesday, September 29, 2009

The Morning After: Week 3


It's the sport of kings, better than diamond rings...


I'm tired of teams being confused by the new formation, popularized by the 2008 Miami Dolphins, NFL teams are using as part of their offensive scheme this season. In my mind there's a simply way to end this trend: one hard hit.

Wildcat Formation + One Hard Hit = No More Wildcat.

Maybe I'm simplifying too much. Am I? The formation can't be that difficult to defend, can it?

When you see a quarterback lined up as a wide receiver, in what is known around the league as the "Wildcat" formation, he's not the "precious" anymore. Don't believe me? Go ask Gollum.

And, after you're done chatting with that fictional jewelry freak, ask yourself this question: What happens to all those rules the NFL has issued protecting the quarterback when he's lined up as a wide receiver?

Got the answer yet?

All those rules become null and void. He's not a quarterback anymore. He's a wide receiver. So the only rules that govern said quarterback in the "Wildcat" formation are the same ones that govern every wide receiver on each down. And one of those rules says a wide receiver can be "chucked" up to 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.

So, with that said, let's offer some advice too all those Defensive Coordinators out there: take advantage of it! Send your safety full speed and tell him to embed his helmet in the quarterback's chest as the ball is snapped. Sure, you might get a 15 yard penalty, but you won't get another "Wildcat" formation.

Ever.

But if a hard hit is too violent a solution for your delicate sensibilities, don't fret, I have a suggestion for you too!

Instead of giving your safety the "right-to-kill" maybe you could install a "Wildcat" specific defense. And maybe it would be similar to a traditional "Cover 2" defense. And maybe instead of playing zone and reacting your defense gets aggressive and tries to scratch out the eyes of the offensive players.

Either way.

Rawr.

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Q
uick Thinking
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-- Big surprise that Woody Allen, a man who married his "stepdaughter," is leading the charge to get Roman Polanski released from jail despite his guilty plea on a statutory rape charge for molesting a 13-year-old girl in 1977.

-- I guess the heart wants what it wants, right Woody?

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-- I'm tired of sportscasters tripping over themselves to tell me how great Brett Favre is.

-- The Red Sox celebrating their wildcard birth following a loss feels a lot like a man bragging about hooking up with a hot chick while she was black out drunk.

-- In my defense, though, she didn't seem that drunk.

-- Memo to all the expecting mom's out there: It's never ok to name your son "Blaine."

-- Never.

-- Despite the win over Atlanta, the Patriots still feel like a .500 team to me.

-- Early Christmas Wish of the Week: I would love to see the HBO Series Hard Knocks follow the New England Patriots through training camp next year.

-- Santa, if you're listening, there's some special treats from Connie's Kitchen in it for you.

-- And not the kind you get under the mistletoe, you dirty old man.

-- The Cincinnati Bengals are better than you think.

-- Bullet by Rhymefest featuring Citizen Cope is a jam from 2006 that needs the dust blown off it.

-- Greg Lewis made the catch of a lifetime against the 49ers.

-- The old Tom Brady used to let his performance do the talking.

-- The new Tom Brady yells at his teammates and looks to the refs for missed calls.

-- I miss the old Tom Brady.

-- The $25 million suit filed by David Givens against the Tennessee Titans could be a case that simply highlights the risks of being a professional football player or it may provide further proof that an NFL organization will do anything to win, including withholding medical information from its players.

-- My guess is it's 50-50.

-- The Red Sox are in the playoffs for the sixth time in seven seasons. Try and enjoy the accomplishment, Sox Nation, instead of stressing about our losing streak.

-- Seattle's color man Mike Blowers' accurate AM radio prediction that Seattle rookie Matt Tuiasosopo would hit his first major league home run during his second at bat on a 3-1 fastball into left center field in Toronto is the most incredible prognostication ever made.

-- EVER.

-- And it's not even close.

-- It also provides further proof that God is a sports fan.

-- Quote of the Week comes from my boy Jake in reaction to the MMS functionality from AT&T going live for the iPhone: "Hooray for MMS messaging. Now I can send you pictures of my johnson."

-- I've changed my phone number for lesser threats.

-- Tim Tebow reminds me a lot of Rex Grossman and Brady Quinn. None of which can play quarterback in the NFL.

-- September's Stupidest Thing Said Award goes to Whoopi Goldberg who quipped the following when asked about Roman Polanski's arrest: "I know it wasn't 'rape-rape.' I think it was something else, but I don't believe it was 'rape-rape.'"

-- Well said, Whoopi.

-- But I have one question for you: Do you "like" Roman Polanski? Or do you "like-like" him?

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Once is an accident, twice is a trend...

by Old Man Lemon

I'm a firm believer in the old adage "Don't talk about it, be about it." With that in mind, instead of a series of apologies and promises following my Week 2 absense, dear readers, I'll simple ask that you grant me a stay of judgement and trust there will not be a repeat of that careless nature the rest of the season.

Thanks.

Now that we're friends again let's start today with a quick recap of Week 1 and immediately dive into this weekend's matchups.

The silver lining in Week 1, of course, was the New England Patriots sqeaked by with a 25-24 victory. In reality, our hometown Pats had no business even winning that game. But we don't live in reality. We live in the land of "spreads" & "covers." And, having not covered our teased spread of -2, we dug ourselves a bit of a hole and came up two extra points short of hitting pay dirt. So, instead of winning $1100 for our Greek Island vacation, we're down $100. Captain Math tells us that's a $1200 swing, dear readers.

But that's why they call it betting.

3 Game Tease of the Week:

(REMINDER: In a 3-game tease the bettor is allowed to manipulate the spread or over/under 9 points in each game.)

1) San Francisco 49ers (+7) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The San Francisco 49ers have not started a season 3-0 since 1998. They are visiting a 2-0 Minnesota Vikings team who had to overcome halftime deficits against weak opponents like the Browns and the Lions. Past history doesn't really come into play for this game. The 49ers are a different team under new head coach Mike Singletary while the Vikings are just enjoying the buzz created by the "un-un-retirement" of attention whore Brett Favre. This game features 2 of the top 3 running backs in yards-per-game this season with Peterson (1st) and Gore (3rd). It also features the league's 4th (Vikings) and 7th (49ers) ranked defenses. I'm thinking San Francisco (+16) has enough of a defense and a running game to control the clock, keep it close and, maybe, steal a win on the road.

2) New Orleans Saints (-6) vs. Buffalo Bills

The next stop for the Drew Brees Offensive Juggernaut is Buffalo. The Bills have the league's 28th ranked defense, giving up nearly 400 yards per game, while the Saints' league leading offensive is racking up 470 yards per game. In addition, there are rumors that Brees and his coach are gunning for Tom Brady's regular season touchdown record of 50 set during the Patriots undefeated season in 2007. I'm thinking Brees adds 5 more TDs to his total in Buffalo this weekend as the Saints (+3) roll.

3) Carolina Pathers vs. Dallas Cowboys (46 0/U)

After laying an egg on Sunday night last weekend, the 'Boys and Regular Season Romo(TM) welcome the 0-2 Carolina Panthers to JerryWorld. (To combat insecurity, some men buy expensive cars. Others build billion stadiums.) Despite Romo's efforts (13-29, 127 yards. 1 TD-3 INT. 29.6 rating) America's Team still had a chance to defeat the Giants, who are considered an elite team in the NFL. I like R.S.R and the Cowboys (over 37) to bounce back and put up some points proving the old adage that "they do things bigger in Texas."

I hope all three games do things "bigger" than our Week 1 tease did for a total play of $480.

CEMENT Pick of the Week:

You may be thinking it's hyperbole to give a game the "must win" label this early in the season. But trust me, dear readers, it's not. As I always say, "Numbers don't lie. People do." Since the NFL expanded its playoff field to 12 teams in 1990 only 3 have gone on to actually make the tournament after starting the season 0-3: the '92 Chargers, the '95 Lions and the '98 Bills.

The Tennessee Titans are too strong on both sides of the ball to become the forth team in 11 years to challenge NFL's historically unkind treatment of 0-3 teams. Plus, as Coach Boone taught me, in "Greek mythology the Titans were greater even than the gods and they ruled their universe with absolute power." So we're betting $1200 that, this weekend, the football field in New York is Tennessee's universe. And they're going to rule it like Titans (+3) and be CEMENT.

Remember dear readers: when life gives you lemons, drink the lemonade.

And when bookies give you lines, try to make it rain.

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[ Season Record: 0-1-0 ]
[ Cement PotW: 1-0-0 ]
[ Bank: $ - 100.00 ]

Thursday, September 10, 2009

The Debut

by Old Man Lemon

This column will provide guidance to those fans who make the occasional wager on NFL games throughout the season. It will also assume that those reading it are familiar with some basic gambling terms such as: "prop bet", "over/under", "money line", "straight bet" and "teasing" among others.

Oh, wait, you don't bet on football? That's ok.

Neither do I.

No topic is off limits for Old Man Lemon, dear readers. Well, save one: please don't ask how I got my nickname. It's a childhood scar that will never fully heal.

Ok, let's put the pleasantries behind us and get down to business.

We're starting this football season with 2 goals. First, we want the New England Patriots to make the playoffs. While yours truly is a Pats fan rest assured that my hope for their success will never interfere with my money risking prognostications. Second, we're looking to fund an all-expense paid trip to the Greek Islands for me and Mrs. Lemon...one that lasts three months.

3 Game Tease of the Week

(NOTE: In a 3-game tease the bettor is allowed to manipulate the spread 9 points in each game.)

1) Tennessee Titans (+6) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers open the 2009 season as defending Super Bowl Champions playing host to the Tennessee Titans. The Steelers are 3-8 against the Titans since '99. Two of those victories came with a side of ketchup in the comforts of Heinz Field and all three saw the Steelers score 34 points in victory. I don't see their offense putting up that many points against a Titans team that held them to 14 points last year without the help of then injured, now traded, Albert Haynesworth. The last time the Steelers lost a season opener was in 2002. Well, I'm grabbing the Titans (+15) and betting the next time they lose a home opener is tonight.

2) Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots (-11)

Tom Brady hasn't seen any regular season action since the "dirty-helmet-to-knee-hit-heard-round-new-england" by Bernard Pollard in last season's opener. This year, the Patriots are playing host to the Buffalo Bills who set records in offensive futility during the preseason resulting in the firing of their Offensive Coordinator. In addition to being disgruntled with the offense, Buffalo's newly acquired wide receiver Terrell Owens called out Bill Belichick when making cracks to the media about "bringing his spy camera" instead of "popcorn" to the game on MNF. All the bravado aside, though, the Patriots are 16-2 against the Bills since '00. Lightning doesn't strike in two straight home openers so I'm betting the Patriots (-2) and Brady light up the Bills.

3) Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers (-9.5)

Do you really need any acumen concerning this match-up? It's the Raiders. C'mon, really? Ok, I'm taking the Chargers (-.5) even though they're playing in Oakland because they've won 11 straight against the Silver & Black.

We'll be wagering $600.00 on the above 3 games.

(Remember, a "tease" means all three games have to cover the "teased" spread to be a winner.)

CEMENT Pick of the Week:

We're spitting in the face of conventional wisdom that says "never bet on the home team" this week, trusted followers. I've always felt that if you're going to take a "risk" it should be with the team you undoubtedly know most intimately -- your "home" team. That said, we'll make our second wager on the Patriots for the CEMENT Pick of the Week.

Call it wishful thinking but with their weak defense (ranked 32nd in preseason play) the Patriots offense is going to have to score points at a record pace this season. The over/under line of 47.5 with the return of Tom Brady for their home opener is too low. I'm betting the Brady Bunch will get 7 touchdowns by themselves. Taking over 47.5 will be the easiest $500.00 I've ever made.

Remember dear readers: when life gives you lemons, drink the lemonade.

And when bookies give you lines, try to make it rain.

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[ Season Record: 0-0-0 ]
[ Cement PotW: 0-0-0 ]
[ Bank: $ 0.00 ]